India vs Pakistan: Who Holds the Strategic Advantage in Case of War?

By Bhargav Das | Defense and Strategic Affairs Editor | May 1, 2025

The shadow of a potential conflict between India and Pakistan, two nuclear-armed neighbors with a history of bitter wars, remains one of the most studied and concerning flashpoints in modern geopolitics. While diplomacy and backchannel communications have, so far, prevented full-scale war in recent decades, the strategic calculus of "who holds the advantage" is a critical question for policymakers and defense analysts alike.

Military Strength: Numbers and Modernization

On paper, India enjoys clear supremacy in terms of sheer military size and investment. As per the Global Firepower Index 2025:

• India maintains the fourth-largest military in the world with over 1.4 million active personnel, compared to Pakistan’s 654,000.
• India’s defense budget now stands at over $76 billion, while Pakistan's remains around $11 billion.

In air power, India fields around 2,200 aircraft, including Rafale, SU-30 MKI, and Tejas fighters. Pakistan operates about 1,400 aircraft, including JF-17s and U.S.-supplied F-16s.

India’s edge is reinforced by initiatives like "Make in India" defense manufacturing, the acquisition of S-400 missile systems, and integration of AI and cyber warfare capabilities.

Geographical and Strategic Depth

India’s vast geography offers strategic depth — it can absorb initial attacks and launch counter-offensives. Pakistan lacks this buffer, with key cities like Lahore and Islamabad close to the Indian border, making them early targets in a rapid escalation.

Nuclear Deterrence: The Great Equalizer

Despite India's conventional advantage, nuclear weapons complicate any war scenario. Pakistan maintains a low nuclear threshold and has tactical nuclear weapons (TNWs) that it may deploy early in a conflict. India adheres to a "No First Use" (NFU) doctrine but possesses a more advanced and diversified nuclear triad.

This dynamic makes even a limited conflict extremely risky, with potential for uncontrollable escalation.

Asymmetric Warfare and Proxy Tactics

Pakistan’s use of non-state actors and proxy warfare, seen in Kargil and Mumbai attacks, creates asymmetric challenges for India. However, India has responded with targeted strikes — such as the Balakot airstrikes — signaling a new posture of limited punitive action.

Diplomatic Clout and Global Support

India’s global alliances — with the U.S., France, Russia, and others — outpace Pakistan’s limited diplomatic reach, which largely hinges on China and a few Gulf nations. In any conflict, India’s global standing could translate into stronger international support.

Cyber and Space Warfare

India has established itself as a leader in cyber defense and space capabilities. Its anti-satellite (ASAT) weapon test and digital warfare initiatives position it ahead of Pakistan in these emerging domains.

Who Has the Advantage?

Strategically, India holds a decisive advantage in manpower, technology, and international influence. However, Pakistan’s nuclear posture ensures that the stakes of escalation remain incredibly high.

Ultimately, while India would likely dominate a prolonged conventional war, the risk of nuclear exchange makes any full-scale conflict catastrophic for both nations.

As history shows, in strategic affairs, the true victory often lies in not fighting at all — but in avoiding a game that no one wins.